Association of multiple-sclerosis-related mortality with COVID-19 and other common infections: a multiple causes of death analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: People with multiple sclerosis (MS) suffer from higher infection-related mortality compared to the general population; however, sparse data are available on the increased risk of death associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other common types of infections. METHODS: All mortality records and multiple-cause-of-death data in 2010-2021 of residents in the Veneto region (northeastern Italy) were extracted. Mention of specific infections was compared between death certificates reporting MS or not. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated by conditional logistic regression matching by age, sex and calendar year. The bimonthly averages of MS-related deaths in 2010-2019 were compared with those registered during the pandemic (2020-2021). RESULTS: Of 580,015 deaths through 2010-2021, MS was mentioned in 850 cases (0.15%), 59.3% women. Influenza and pneumonia were reported in 18.4% of MS-related compared to 11.0% non-MS-related deaths (OR 2.72, 95% CI 2.28-3.25). The odds of mention of urinary tract infections was significantly greater in MS-related deaths of men (OR 8.16, 95% CI 5.23-12.7) than women (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.82-5.02). Aspiration pneumonia, pressure ulcers/skin infections and sepsis were also significantly associated with MS-related deaths. Reporting of COVID-19 as a cause of death did not significantly differ between deaths with and without mention of MS (approximately 11% of both). However, compared to 2010-2019, peaks in MS-related deaths were observed during the pandemic waves. CONCLUSIONS: Infections continue to play a significant role in MS-related deaths, underlying the need to improve prevention and management strategies.

Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodological Approaches Compared.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality has been reported worldwide, but its magnitude has varied depending on methodological differences that hinder between-study comparability. Our aim was to estimate variability attributable to different methods, focusing on specific causes of death with different pre-pandemic trends. Monthly mortality figures observed in 2020 in the Veneto Region (Italy) were compared with those forecasted using: (1) 2018-2019 monthly average number of deaths; (2) 2015-2019 monthly average age-standardized mortality rates; (3) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models; (4) Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models. We analyzed deaths due to all-causes, circulatory diseases, cancer, and neurologic/mental disorders. Excess all-cause mortality estimates in 2020 across the four approaches were: +17.2% (2018-2019 average number of deaths), +9.5% (five-year average age-standardized rates), +15.2% (SARIMA), and +15.7% (GEE). For circulatory diseases (strong pre-pandemic decreasing trend), estimates were +7.1%, -4.4%, +8.4%, and +7.2%, respectively. Cancer mortality showed no relevant variations (ranging from -1.6% to -0.1%), except for the simple comparison of age-standardized mortality rates (-5.5%). The neurologic/mental disorders (with a pre-pandemic growing trend) estimated excess corresponded to +4.0%/+5.1% based on the first two approaches, while no major change could be detected based on the SARIMA and GEE models (-1.3%/+0.3%). The magnitude of excess mortality varied largely based on the methods applied to forecast mortality figures. The comparison with average age-standardized mortality rates in the previous five years diverged from the other approaches due to the lack of control over pre-existing trends. Differences across other methods were more limited, with GEE models probably representing the most versatile option.

Veneto Region dementia-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: multiple causes of death and time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Older individuals with dementia have been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a lack of in-depth evaluation of mortality trends using both the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and the multiple causes of death (MCOD) approaches. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dementia-related deaths considering comorbidities and the place of death. METHODS: This retrospective, population-based study was conducted in Veneto, Italy. All the death certificates of individuals aged ≥65 years issued from 2008 to 2020 were analyzed for dementia-related mortality using age-standardized sex-stratified rates of dementia as UCOD and MCOD. Excess in monthly dementia-related mortality in 2020 was estimated by applying Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. RESULTS: Overall, 70 301 death certificates reported dementia (MCOD proportional mortality: 12.9%), and 37 604 cases identified it as UCOD (proportional mortality: 6.9%). In 2020, the MCOD proportional mortality increased to 14.3% whereas that of UCOD remained static (7.0%). Compared to the SARIMA prediction, MCOD increased by 15.5% in males and 18.3% in females in 2020. Compared to the 2018-19 average, deaths in nursing homes increased by 32% in 2020, at home by 26% and in hospitals by 12%. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in dementia-related mortality during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic could only be detected using the MCOD approach. MCOD proved to be more robust, and hence, should be included in future analyses. Nursing homes appeared to be the most critical setting which should guide establishing protective measures for similar situations.

The Association Between Pediatric COVID-19 Vaccination and Socioeconomic Position: Nested Case-Control Study From the Pedianet Veneto Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The success of pediatric COVID-19 vaccination strongly depends on parents' willingness to vaccinate their children. To date, the role of socioeconomic position (SEP) in pediatric COVID-19 vaccination has not been thoroughly examined. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the association between COVID-19 vaccination and SEP in a large pediatric cohort. METHODS: A case-control study design nested into a pediatric cohort of children born between 2007 and 2017, living in the Veneto Region and followed up to at least January 1, 2022, was adopted. Data on children were collected from the Pedianet database and linked with the regional COVID-19 registry. Each child vaccinated with at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine between July 1, 2021, and March 31, 2022, was matched by sex, year of birth, and family pediatrician to up to 5 unvaccinated children. Unvaccinated children with a positive outcome on the swab test within 180 days before the index date were excluded from the analyses. Children were geo-referenced to determine their area deprivation index (ADI)-a social and material deprivation measure calculated at the census block level and consisting of 5 socioeconomic items. The index was then categorized in quintiles based on the regional ADI level. The association between ADI quintiles and vaccination status was measured using conditioned logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios and the corresponding 95% CIs. Quantile-g-computation regression models were applied to develop a weighted combination of the individual items to estimate how much each component influenced the likelihood of vaccination. All analyses were stratified by age at vaccination (5-11 and 12-14 years). RESULTS: The study population consisted of 6475 vaccinated children, who were matched with 32,124 unvaccinated children. Increasing area deprivation was associated with a lower probability of being vaccinated, with approximately a linear dose-response relationship. Children in the highest deprivation quintile were 36% less likely to receive a COVID-19 vaccine than those with the lowest area deprivation (95% CI 0.59-0.70). The results were similar in the 2 age groups, with a slightly stronger association in 5-11-year-old children. When assessing the effects of the weighted combination of the individual items, a quintile increase was associated with a 17% decrease in the probability of being vaccinated (95% CI 0.80-0.86). The conditions that influenced the probability of vaccination the most were living on rent, being unemployed, and being born in single-parent families. CONCLUSIONS: This study has shown a significant reduction in the likelihood of receiving a COVID-19 vaccine among children living in areas characterized by a lower SEP. Findings were robust among multiple analyses and definitions of the deprivation index. These findings suggest that SEP plays an important role in vaccination coverage, emphasizing the need to promote targeted public health efforts to ensure global vaccine equity.

Mortality Related to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death through Different Epidemic Waves in Veneto, Italy.

Mortality related to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) during the COVID-19 pandemic is possibly underestimated by sparse available data. The study aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic on COPD-related mortality by means of time series analyses of causes of death data. We analyzed the death certificates of residents in Veneto (Italy) aged ≥40 years from 2008 to 2020. The age-standardized rates were computed for COPD as the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and as any mention in death certificates (multiple cause of death-MCOD). The annual percent change (APC) in the rates was estimated for the pre-pandemic period. Excess COPD-related mortality in 2020 was estimated by means of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models. Overall, COPD was mentioned in 7.2% (43,780) of all deaths. From 2008 to 2019, the APC for COPD-related mortality was -4.9% (95% CI -5.5%, -4.2%) in men and -3.1% in women (95% CI -3.8%, -2.5%). In 2020 compared to the 2018-2019 average, the number of deaths from COPD (UCOD) declined by 8%, while COPD-related deaths (MCOD) increased by 14% (95% CI 10-18%), with peaks corresponding to the COVID-19 epidemic waves. Time series analyses confirmed that in 2020, COPD-related mortality increased by 16%. Patients with COPD experienced significant excess mortality during the first year of the pandemic. The decline in COPD mortality as the UCOD is explained by COVID-19 acting as a competing cause, highlighting how an MCOD approach is needed.

[Impact of COVID-19 on the immigrant population in the Veneto Region (Northern Italy), by geographical area of origin]. / Impatto del COVID-19 nella popolazione immigrata in Veneto, per area geografica di provenienza.

OBJECTIVES: to examine the differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization rates among migrant populations in Veneto Region (Northern Italy), according to the geographic area of origin. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: all residents in Veneto Region aged <65 years were included in the analyses. All subjects infected by SARS-CoV-2 and hospitalized for COVID-19 were identified by means of the regional biosurveillance system. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: age- and gender-specific infection and hospitalization rates were stratified by geographic area of origin and were estimated using the number of incident cases over the resident population in Veneto on 01.01.2021. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) for infection and hospitalization rates were estimated using a Poisson model, adjusted for age and gender, among migrants compared to Italians. RESULTS: compared to Italians, SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were significantly higher among migrants from Central and South America and Central and South Asia, lower among those from North Africa and High-Income Countries (HIC), and were approximately halved for those coming from Other Asian Countries (mainly represented by China). Hospitalization rates were significantly higher for all migrant populations when compared to Italians, with the exception of those coming from HIC. Neither age nor gender seemed to modify the association of the geographic area of origin with SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization rates. IRR for SARS-CoV-2 infection of migrants compared to Italians showed how migrants from Other Asian Countries had the lowest infection rates (-53%), followed by people from HIC (-25%), North Africa (-21%), and Eastern Europe (-10%). Higher infection rates were present for Central and South America and Central and South Asia (+17% and +10, respectively). Hospitalization rates were especially high among migrants from Central and South Asia, Africa, and Central and South America, ranging from 1.84 to 3.14 times those observed for Italians. CONCLUSIONS: a significant heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization rates of migrant populations from different geographic areas of origin were observed. The significantly lower incidence rate ratio for infections, compared to that observed for hospitalizations, is suggestive of a possible under-diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection among migrant populations. Public health efforts should be targeted at increasing support among migrants to contrast the spread of the pandemic by potentiating vaccination campaigns, contact tracing, and COVID-19 diagnostic tests.

Parkinson's disease related mortality: Long-term trends and impact of COVID-19 pandemic waves.

INTRODUCTION: Parkinson's disease (PD) mortality burden is increasing worldwide, but accurate estimates on the magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are missing. Mortality rates vary largely when considering PD as underlying cause of death (UCOD), or as one among multiple causes reported in death certificates (MCOD). The aim of this study is to assess COVID-19 impact on PD-related mortality trends using the UCOD and MCOD approach. METHODS: Mortality records between 01/2008-12/2020 of residents aged ≥45 years in Veneto Region (Northeastern Italy) with any mention of PD were collected. Age-standardized sex-specific mortality rates were estimated for PD-related deaths as UCOD and MCOD to assess time trends. The average annual percentage change in age-standardized rates (AAPC) was estimated by linear regression models. Monthly mortality in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, was plotted against the 2018-2019 average. RESULTS: Overall, 13,746 PD-related deaths (2.3% of all deaths) were identified, 52% males, median age 84 years. Proportional mortality increased from 1.9% (2008) to 2.8% (2020). AAPC through 2008-2019 was +5.2% for males and +5.3% for females in analyses of the UCOD, and +1.4% in both genders based on MCOD. Excess in PD-related mortality during 2020 corresponded to 19% for UCOD and 28% for MCOD, with the latter showing two peaks corresponding to the first (28%) and second (59%) pandemic waves. CONCLUSION: Age-standardized PD-related mortality rates have steeply increased during COVID-19 pandemic, amplifying a pre-existing long-term trend. Hence, surveillance of mortality associated to PD is warranted in the forthcoming pandemic and post-pandemic years.

Deaths related to pulmonary embolism and cardiovascular events before and during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic: An epidemiological analysis of data from an Italian high-risk area.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary embolism is a known complication of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Epidemiological population data focusing on pulmonary embolism-related mortality is limited. METHODS: Veneto is a region in Northern Italy counting 4,879,133 inhabitants in 2020. All ICD-10 codes from death certificates (1st January 2018 to 31st December 2020) were examined. Comparisons were made between 2020 (COVID-19 outbreak) and the average of the two-year period 2018-2019. All-cause, COVID-19-related and the following cardiovascular deaths have been studied: pulmonary embolism, hypertensive disease, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation/flutter, and cerebrovascular diseases. RESULTS: In 2020, a total of 56,412 deaths were recorded, corresponding to a 16% (n = 7806) increase compared to the period 2018-2019. The relative percentage increase during the so-called first and second waves was 19% and 44%, respectively. Of 7806 excess deaths, COVID-19 codes were reported in 90% of death certificates. The percentage increase in pulmonary embolism-related deaths was 27% (95%CI 19-35%), 1018 deaths during the year 2020, compared to 804 mean annual deaths in the period 2018-2019. This was more evident among men, who experience an absolute increase of 147 deaths (+45%), than in women (+67 deaths; +14%). The increase was primarily driven by deaths recorded during the second wave (+91% in October-December). An excess of deaths, particularly among men and during the second wave, was also observed for other cardiovascular diseases, notably hypertensive disease, atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a considerable increase of all-cause mortality during the year 2020. This was mainly driven by COVID-19 and its complications. The relative increase in the number of pulmonary embolism-related deaths was more prominent during the second wave, suggesting a possible underdiagnosis during the first wave.

Elderly People's Access to Emergency Departments during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from a Large Population-Based Study in Italy.

Across the world, people have avoided seeking medical attention during the coronavirus pandemic, resulting in a marked reduction in emergency department (ED) visits. This retrospective cohort study examines in detail how the present pandemic affects ED use by the elderly. The regional database on ED visits in Veneto (northeastern Italy) was consulted to extract anonymous data on all ED visits during 2019 and 2020, along with details concerning patients' characteristics (access mode, triage code, chief complaint, and outcome). A year-on-year comparison was drawn between 2019 and 2020. There was a 25.3% decrease in ED visits in 2020 compared to the previous year. The decrease ranged from -52.4% in March to -18.4% in September when comparing the same months in the two years. This decrease started in late February 2020, with the lowest numbers of visits recorded in March and April 2020 (during the "first wave" of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy), and in the autumn (during the "second wave"). The proportion of visits to the ED by ambulance has increased sharply since March 2020, and patients arrived more frequently with severe conditions (red or yellow triage tags) that often required a hospitalization. The greatest decrease was in fact observed for non-urgent complaints. This decreased concerned a wide range of conditions, including chest pain and abdominal pain. The sharp reduction observed in the present study is unlikely to be attributed entirely to the effect of lockdown measures. Individual psychological and media-induced fear of contagion most likely played a relevant role in leading people to avoid seeking medical attention.

Pediatric emergency department visits during the COVID-19 pandemic: a large retrospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 pandemic has stretched healthcare system capacities worldwide and deterred people from seeking medical support at Emergency Departments (ED). Nevertheless, population-based studies examining the consequences on children are lacking. METHODS: All ED visits from 2019 to 2020 in Veneto, Italy (4.9 million residents) were collected. Anonymized records of pediatric (≤14 years) ED visits included patient characteristics, arrival mode, triage code, clinical presentation, and discharge mode. Year-on-year variation of the main ED visit characteristics, and descriptive trends throughout the study period have been examined. RESULTS: Overall, 425,875 ED presentations were collected, 279,481 in 2019, and 146,394 in 2020 (- 48%), with a peak (- 79%) in March-April (first pandemic wave), and a second peak (below - 60%) in November-December (second pandemic wave). Burn or trauma, and fever were the two most common clinical presentations. Visits for nonurgent conditions underwent the strongest reduction during both pandemic waves, while urgent conditions reduced less sharply. ED arrival by ambulance was more common in 2020 (4.5%) than 2019 (3.5%), with a higher proportion of red triage codes (0.5%, and 0.4% respectively), and hospitalizations following ED discharge (9.1%, and 5.9% respectively). CONCLUSION: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, pediatric ED presentations underwent a steeper reduction than that observed for adults. Lockdown and fear of contagion in hospital-based services likely deterred parents from seeking medical support for their children. Given COVID-19 could become endemic, it is imperative that public health experts guarantee unhindered access to medical support for urgent, and less urgent health conditions, while minimizing infectious disease risks, to prevent children from suffering direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic.

Hospitalizations and emergency department visits trends among elderly individuals in proximity to death: a retrospective population-based study.

Acute healthcare services are extremely important, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, as healthcare demand has rapidly intensified, and resources have become insufficient. Studies on specific prepandemic hospitalization and emergency department visit (EDV) trends in proximity to death are limited. We examined time-trend specificities based on sex, age, and cause of death in the last 2 years of life. Datasets containing all hospitalizations and EDVs of elderly residents in Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy (N = 411,812), who died between 2002 and 2014 at ≥ 65 years, have been collected. We performed subgroup change-point analysis of monthly trends in the 2 years preceding death according to sex, age at death (65-74, 75-84, 85-94, and ≥ 95 years), and main cause of death (cancer, cardiovascular, or respiratory disease). The proportion of decedents (N = 142,834) accessing acute healthcare services increased exponentially in proximity to death (hospitalizations = 4.7, EDVs = 3.9 months before death). This was inversely related to age, with changes among the youngest and eldest decedents at 6.6 and 3.5 months for hospitalizations and at 4.6 and 3.3 months for EDVs, respectively. Healthcare use among cancer patients intensified earlier in life (hospitalizations = 6.8, EDVs = 5.8 months before death). Decedents from respiratory diseases were most likely to access hospital-based services during the last month of life. No sex-based differences were found. The greater use of acute healthcare services among younger decedents and cancer patients suggests that policies potentiating primary care support targeting these at-risk groups may reduce pressure on hospital-based services.